A Conservative Estimate?

Date: 2015-10-07; view: 884.

Not So Sunny for Solar

The IEA is less optimistic in its outlook for solar energy production. According to the report, solar energy is expected to experience average annual growth rate of around 25 percent over the next five years—down from 45 percent annual growth for the period between 1998 and 2012.

"If we look at solar energy projections, we realize that these projections are not really promising," said Mohamed ElNozahy, an electrical and computer engineer at Canada's University of Waterloo.

"This is mainly attributed to the cost and technical challenges highlighted in my last review paper," said ElNozahy, who was not involved in the IEA report.

A recent paper co-authored by ElNozahy and published in the Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy highlighted numerous challenges for energy generated by solar cells before they can be smoothly integrated with existing electrical networks.

For example, power generation by solar cells—also known as photovoltaic (PV) cells—can vary dramatically in response to changing cloud cover or temperature. This causes dips in electrical output that can require costly equipment to regulate.

Daniel Kammen, founder and director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, argued that the IEA's projections are somewhat conservative.

Kammen thinks the global shift to renewables and the adoption of policies and technologies to accelerate their deployment could occur faster than the IEA predicts due to growing awareness about health impacts of local pollution and the economic and environmental costs of climate change.

"The IEA report notes but perhaps could give more weight to the very significant health and environmental costs that will result if this shift does not take place," Kammen said in an e-mail message.

Despite the momentum behind renewables, challenges remain, IEA's Van der Hoeven said.

For example, "worldwide subsidies for fossil fuels remain six times higher than economic incentives for renewables," she said.

1. By 2016 alternative sources of energy will completely substitute fossil fuel-based energy generation.

2. According to the analysis, renewable power generation will grow by 20% in the next 5 years.

3. Renewables will make over a third of the global power mix by 2018.

4. One of the factors driving the surge in the market of renewables is decreasing the costs of power generating equipment.

5. Hydropower may lose its position as the main source of renewables.

6. China is the leader in developing all advanced power generation technologies, especially geothermal.

7. Solar power generation is the easiest and cheapest to implement technologically.

8. The global shift to renewables may slow down because of technical challenges.

3. Read about alternative sources of energy used in the United States paying attention to the phrases given below. Make sure you know their meaning.

appropriate power plant siting issues; bottlenecks in transmission and distribution; economically viable; a build-up of unacceptably high levels of carbon dioxide; implementing clean energy solutions; incentives and sustained programs; a more compelling and conducive environment for an integrated, large-scale approach to renewable energy innovation and market expansion; "quick fix" solutions; advanced energy conversion devices such as fuel cells; conversion technologies; to install and bring on-line; photovoltaic (solar) panels and solar hot water heaters; to shave peak-power demands; wind and cogeneration system deployment; photovoltaic arrays, windmills, biomass, small hydropower; tailored to meet specific energy loads and service conditions; to have less of an impact on the environment; contribute significantly to ambient air pollution and acid rain; low incremental costs; the direct damage to the terrestrial and river systems from mining and pollutant emissions, the impacts on crop yields and urban areas.