IEA's New Outlook

The International Energy Agency, Paris, concludes that future en­ergy supply and demand' worldwide would be very different. The IEA

Section I. Power Engineering

outlook predicts² that world energy demand could grow by 65% and carbon dioxide emissions by 70%. Two-thirds of the increase in energy demand and energy-related C0₂ emissions by 2020 could occur³ in China and other developing countries. By 2020, worldwide energy-related C0₂ emissions could rise 75% above the 1990 levels, the basis for the Kyoto Protocol. The balance among energy sources is project­ed to change marginally. The market share of gas will increase while the share of oil will decline slightly and that of coal will remain stable. Output from nuclear power plants will remain stable to 2020 as the commissioning of new plants broadly matches plant retirements Growth in the use of hydropower will be limited by the availability of suitable sites and environmental considerations.

1 - спрос и предложение; 2 - предсказывает; 3 - произойти

i== Unit 2 =Ё

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

PARTI

• Read thetext below andsay what cooperation itdeals with.

Since the oil crises of the 1970's international cooperation has be­come an increasingly important factor in energy policy for most coun­tries of the industrial world. It arose from the need to cope effectively with the disruptive impact of oil-price increases on the economy. In­ternational cooperation has contributed substantially to the formulation and application of concerted actions to reduce dependency on oil and respond collectively to emergency situations.

Despite progress, it was soon realized however that energy issues couldn't be solved by industrial countries alone, working in isolation. Nor was it a matter of redistributing energy resources and proceeds from oil-trade between oil producing and consuming countries. Ener­gy policy can no longer be applied without due attention to the realities of an jncreasingly interdependent world economy, in which long-term issues, like the environment, population growth and the advancement of less developed countries raise serious concerns.

Consequently, international energy cooperation has been included as an integral part of the energy policy of the European Union. The need to strengthen cooperation is further underlined by recent events and developments taking place within as well as outside the Union. In the first place, policy objectives and priorities have con­centrated on the establishment of a Single Market to include the energy sector, as a means towards increasing availability and reducing the cost of energy supplies throughout the Union. Given the energy situation prevailing in most of the Member States, attaining this objective de­pends heavily on the extent to which energy relations with other coun­tries can be promoted and secured. The specific EU Programme con­centrates on the transfer of energy policy know-how and strategies to Third Countries with the following approach:

Section I. Power Engineering

Unit 2. International Cooperation

—the global objective of securing energy supplies at reasonable prices;

—facilitating collaboration between European companies and ma­jor energy producing and consuming industries in third countries;

— protection of the environment from industrial pollution.
Despite recent economic setbacks, many of the newly emerging

world economies are being fuelled by massive increases in energy use and this will have significant repercussions on the environment. Some estimates predict that India and China will be responsible for as much as a quarter of the world's total Commissions by the year 2010. The energy/ environment interrelation is subsequently very important and has been reflected in many cooperation activities, particularly in the area of clean coal technologies or renewable energy sources such as wind, small hydro, solar, photovoltaic, solar thermal and biogas.

Energy co-operation should function in close collaboration with both national administrations and regional organizations. Such coopera­tion not only contributes to economic development but also to peace and stability for the countries.

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